The IMEMO specialists presented an analytical report about possible nuclear scenario in Ukrainian conflict, based on an analysis of Russian military doctrine regarding the conditions and principles of nuclear weapons use.
The report says: «the key public document of the legal and regulatory framework in the field of nuclear deterrence in the Russian Federation is the «Basic Principles of the State Policy of the Russian Federation in the Field of Nuclear Deterrence».
These Basic Principles list in detail the «military risks» that may evolve into «military threats» that nuclear deterrence is designed to counter.
On Oct. 18, 2018, Russian President Vladimir V. Putin’s in his speech at the Valdai Discussion Club said: «There is no provision for a pre-emptive strike in our nuclear weapons doctrine. Our concept is based on a reciprocal counter strike… this means that we are prepared and will use nuclear weapons only when we know for certain that some potential aggressor is attacking Russia, our territory… Of course, this amounts to a global catastrophe but I would like to repeat that we cannot be the initiators of such a catastrophe because we have no provision for a pre-emptive strike».
Nowadays all representatives of the Russian Foreign Ministry constantly emphasize: «Russia is not considering the possibility of using nuclear weapons in Ukraine, only conventional weapons are involved».
According to Basic Principles, the most realistic form of the nuclear weapons use in a local conflict is their possible retaliatory use in two cases. First, if the adversary is the first to use nuclear or other weapons of mass destruction. Second, if they launch an attack that calls into question the other side’s nuclear deterrent capability. In a conflict between a nuclear power and a non-nuclear power, both scenarios are virtually impossible. In the case of third-party intervention — by another nuclear power — the risks of escalation to full-scale nuclear war are uncontrollable, the report says.
Therefore, it can be assumed with a high degree of certainty that nuclear weapons will not be used provided that the conflict remains within the current borders and without direct involvement of other participating states on the side of Ukraine.
It is sad and alarming that the US continues its games in this sphere and at the same time continues to attribute non-existent concepts and intentions to Russia.
Ultimately, experts emphasize that «escalation dynamics depend on many unpredictable factors. Kiev’s revanchist sentiments and the Ukrainian leadership’s refusal to negotiate with the Russian side, motivated by domestic political reasons, combined with the desire of the United States and its allies to use the Ukrainian crisis for military and economic exhaustion of Russia, could lead to the gravest consequences.
Should hostilities in Ukraine continue and increase in intensity, and even more so should NATO countries become directly involved in the conflict, the use of nuclear weapons cannot be completely ruled out. This danger can only be eliminated by seeking a political and diplomatic end to the conflict in Ukraine, the need for which has been repeatedly stated by the Russian leadership.»