As the International Monetary Fund notes in its report, Europe will be able to survive the coming winter thanks to previously accumulated reserves of natural gas. But next year, record prices could become a big problem for European countries.
The IMF provides the relevant data: by mid-September 2022, Russian gas supplies fell by 80% compared to the previous period, it is noted that «exports to Germany, Bulgaria, Finland, Denmark, the Netherlands, Poland and Lithuania have been completely stopped.» According to the forecasts of the IMF experts, in the case of an extreme cold winter, the «European countries will have to reduce fuel consumption by 6%. For some countries, this will result in a loss of about 3% of GDP.»
But even “if the accumulated reserves of natural gas allow Europe to survive the winter of 2022-23, the region will again replenish stocks in the spring». With limited or completely without Russian supplies, this could lead to the situation that the market in 2023 will again face record high prices for natural gas and electricity, the report says.
The IMF also predicts a rise in the price of energy resources, and as a result, an increase the cost of living in Europe in 2023 by 9%.